Currently reading "The Principles of Product Development Flow: Second Generation Lean Product Development" by Donald G. Reinertsen. The authors show something similar. The example is the lotto. 1/1M chance at a $1M payoff, each ticket is worth $1. But how much is learning the first number worth? $10 because it improves your odds of winning by 10x.
Posting this JavaScript code was very helpful. I ran it in the same browser window where I was reading the email, and I used Gemini to help explain it to me. In about 15 minutes, I learned half a semester's worth of JavaScript structures and geometric means. Thank you!
Since in the main code you already put coins/2 in the box? In my simulation, possibly erroneous, SD invariably goes broke, or gets down to 1 coin which can't be split, depending.
I assume I'm missing something important here ... but it seems to me that a long enough sequence of bad flips will consume any number of prior wins, and thereafter one is stuck.
I'll reflect further. But don't we know that with finite resources, any strategy with an even money bet must go broke in the long term? Your experience is more recent and more live than my vague recollection of probability study, no doubt about that.
Currently reading "The Principles of Product Development Flow: Second Generation Lean Product Development" by Donald G. Reinertsen. The authors show something similar. The example is the lotto. 1/1M chance at a $1M payoff, each ticket is worth $1. But how much is learning the first number worth? $10 because it improves your odds of winning by 10x.
One of my favourite books.
Posting this JavaScript code was very helpful. I ran it in the same browser window where I was reading the email, and I used Gemini to help explain it to me. In about 15 minutes, I learned half a semester's worth of JavaScript structures and geometric means. Thank you!
Off topic but thought this paper’s discussion of PD would be of interest.
https://stephanieseneff.substack.com/p/glucosepane-stiff-collagen-cirs-and?r=62k4n&utm_medium=ios
Why shouldn't this line:
coins = strategy(coins, Math.random() < 0.5 ? 2 : 0.5);
be
coins = strategy(coins, Math.random() < 0.5 ? 2 : 0.0) ; // note 0.0 not 0.5
Since in the main code you already put coins/2 in the box? In my simulation, possibly erroneous, SD invariably goes broke, or gets down to 1 coin which can't be split, depending.
class TestFlipper:
def test_flip(self):
box = 100
for trial in range(1000):
box = box/2 + (box if random.random() > 0.5 else 0)
assert box < 1
I assume I'm missing something important here ... but it seems to me that a long enough sequence of bad flips will consume any number of prior wins, and thereafter one is stuck.
Kind regards,
R
I struggled with the same distinction. Those are two different games requiring different strategies.
I'll reflect further. But don't we know that with finite resources, any strategy with an even money bet must go broke in the long term? Your experience is more recent and more live than my vague recollection of probability study, no doubt about that.